Board of Supervisors to Receive Report on Impacts of California Forever Initiative

July 18, 2024

SOLANO COUNTY – At their meeting on Tuesday, July 23 in the Board Chambers, located at 675 Texas Street in Fairfield, starting at 2 p.m., the Department of Resource Management and the County Administrator’s Office will present the Solano County Board of Supervisors with a report, prepared in accordance with California Elections Code section 9111, on the impacts to Solano County from the “REZONING OF 17,500 ACRES OF LAND IN EAST SOLANO COUNTY TO ALLOW DEVELOPMENT OF A NEW COMMUNITY” Initiative (also known as “California Forever” or “East Solano Plan”) The report was ordered by the Board at its June 25 meeting to provide information about the fiscal, land use, infrastructure, business and employment, agriculture, and other impacts of the proposed new community. A copy of the report and meeting agenda is available here.  

Pursuant to California Election Code section 9118, following the presentation of the report on July 23, the board must either adopt the ordinance as is or order an election.  

“The County’s top priority is to provide the community with objective and factual information about California Forever/East Solano Initiative so that voters can make the most informed choice in November.  We hope this report inspires a constructive debate of the issues facing this community,” said Bill Emlen, Solano County Administrator. “Compiling this impact analysis on the new community proposal has been a herculean effort by the County team given its size and scope - nearly doubling our current County population at buildout – and its sweeping impacts on our environment, economy, and mobility.”  

A brief summary of the report’s findings are as follows: 

SCALE: The proposed California Forever community is the largest development proposal by a developer for real estate development in Solano County history and, at full buildout, would be the largest community by population in the County, with a land area similar to the existing City of Vacaville.  

GENERAL PLAN ALIGNMENT: The initiative significantly deviates from the Solano County General Plan and three decades of orderly growth. It promotes extensive residential development on agricultural lands, and diverges substantially from the County’s current plan to meet its housing goals via appropriate, underutilized sites in the existing seven cities.  

FUTURE LAND USE APPROVAL: The California Forever initiative contains language limiting the County and public’s ability to have a say in future development proposals. Were the initiative to be approved, a broad range of uses (a large-scale entertainment venue, an apartment complex, a commercial center) would be subject to only “ministerial” approval without public input or environmental review. 

FISCAL IMPACTS: The proposed California Forever project is expected to create significant fiscal deficits for both Solano County and the Montezuma Fire Protection District, which would grow as the project grows. 

n  Phase 1: estimated annual fiscal deficit of $5.9 million for the County and $6.5 million for the fire district 
n  Buildout: at full size annual deficits are projected at $103.1 million (County) and $88.8 million (Fire District)
n  A new community facilities district (CFD) formed to offset these costs would equate to an annual CFD tax of $1,955 per single family unit or $977 per multi-family unit     

INFRASTRUCTURE: The financial feasibility of the project is questionable given high projected infrastructure costs of $6.4 billion for Phase 1 to $49.1 billion at buildout, without identified funding sources. Ongoing maintenance of infrastructure would come at a cost to Solano County and all residents, including those outside the new community. The largest costs follow. 

n  Transportation Infrastructure: Phase 1 costs outside the development area are $2.2 billion and $1.5 billion internally, which grow to $17.6 billion externally and $12.2 billion internally at maximum buildout.
n  Schools: Phase 1 will require six K-8 schools and two high schools, costing $743 million. At buildout, school costs total $5.9 billion. 

TRAVIS AIR FORCE BASE: The dramatic land use changes proposed in the Initiative could have significant impacts to the mission and operational capabilities at Travis AFB.  One of the important geographic elements to the base in the adjacency and access to large expanses of open space that allows for diverse flight training approaches and operations.  The new community plan would significantly change this dynamic. There is also a high probability base access and security could be directly impacted by developments within the new community.  The effects of traffic build up on Hwy. 12 and other roadways serving the base could impede prompt and efficient movement for equipment and personnel on and off the installation. 

BUSINESS AND EMPLOYMENT: The Initiative may result in 94,000 jobs at buildout, including construction jobs. This would significantly increase employment opportunities within the County during buildout with permanent jobs remaining after buildout. A portion of these jobs are expected to be “good paying” jobs, paying at least $125% of average County wages. The development of a new community may prompt existing Solano County residents to relocate, resulting in a redistribution of economic activity and potentially affect existing businesses in urban areas along with the business districts in the existing seven cities. 

HOUSING NEEDS: The initiative makes no commitment to provide low-income housing units even though Solano County must meet state housing development targets for very low and low-income tiers.  

ENVIRONMENT AND ECOSYSTEM: The loss of 17,500 acres of farmland includes significant ecosystem impacts, including the loss of climate change adaptation, biodiversity maintenance, water regulation, wildfire mitigation and aesthetic benefits. The initiative would remove the new community from Priority Habitat designation and the Resource Conservation Overlay which will have significant impacts on local ecosystems, biodiversity and environmental quality and will reduce 14,000 acres of grazing lands and their associated environmental benefits.  There is substantial uncertainty regarding the source and quantity of water supplies that will be used to serve the new community and resulting impacts on other water users in the area. 

TRAFFIC: Traffic congestion is expected to rise substantially under the proposed initiative. Road closures, detours and increased traffic relating to construction activities for Phase one are anticipated to last ten years. At buildout, the total increase in annual vehicle miles traveled is expected to be 2 billion for residential vehicles and 438 million for work vehicles. These roadway conditions would require extensive and costly road and bridge improvements to mitigate, including widening of Hwy 12 and the Rio Vista Bridge.  

UNKNOWN IMPACTS: A full assessment of impacts is limited by a lack of details in the initiative, including the lack of detail on phasing, infrastructure funding, water supply assessment, or a plan for addressing traffic impacts.  

Note, the impact report is not an Environmental Impact Report (EIR), which is required under the California Environmental Quality Act whenever there is substantial evidence a project will have a significant impact on the environment. Because California Forever is asking voters to rezone 17,500 acres of agricultural land for urban use by ballot measure, an EIR would be required only after (and if) the initiative were to be approved by voters.  The full report is available on the County’s website. 

PUBLIC COMMENT
The Solano County Administrator’s Office is taking steps to ensure the public has safe and easy access to attend the Board meeting and provide public comment.  As part of this process, we ask the public to be mindful of the following considerations, including:  

n  Seating in the Board Chambers is first-come-first serve.  A line will be established directly outside the 675 Texas front entry doors beginning at 1:00 p.m.  In the event the Board chambers reaches capacity, overflow rooms will be available and staff and signage will direct attendees to these locations as needed.
n  The Board of Supervisors meeting will be livestreamed in the overflow rooms.  There is a 30-second delay in the livestream broadcast.
n  Participants who wish to make a statement as part of public comment must fill out a yellow comment card at 2:00 p.m., available in the Board chambers and overflow rooms, in advance of speaking.  
n  Staff will collect speaker cards and the Chair of the Board, with support from staff, will call speakers in groups, and direct them to the public comment area.  Please note, ADA accommodation will be made for those who need / request it during the meeting. 

ADDITIONAL CONSIDERATIONS / PUBLIC COMMENT
Please be mindful of the following considerations as part of public comment, including: 

n  All public comments must be specific to California Forever and will be heard only during the 2 p.m. session.  Public comment cards will not be accepted on the initiative at the Board’s 9 a.m. session.
n  All public comments will be made after the item has been presented to the Board.
n  All public comments need to be made in person.  There will not be a call-in line. 
n  Subject to the discretion of the Board Chair, public comments may be limited to 1 minute.
n  No signs, posters or noisemakers are permitted in the Board Chambers and multipurpose rooms.  

ATTENDING IN PERSON / WATCH THE MEETING ONLINE
The Board of Supervisors meeting is hosted at the Solano County Administration Center, located at 675 Texas Street in the Board Chambers in Fairfield.  In addition to the in-person meeting, the event will be livestreamed starting at 2 p.m. PST on the County’s website.  This meeting, along with all the previous Board of Supervisors’ meetings, can be viewed as part of the County’s video archive.